Bad Predictions Review

During the NFL football season, I enjoy reading Gregg Easterbrook's weekly column Tuesday Morning Quarterback at espn.com. After the football season is over, I love his annual Bad Predictions Review column-- because many of the things the so-called "experts" and "pundits" predicted were so horribly wrong! And because experts and pundits rarely get called to the carpet for their really awful predictions-- though many are quick to highlight the predictions they nailed.

The whole column is a blast to read, but here are a few of the predictions that were particularly awful, and amusing:

Tom Curran of MSNBC forecast Percy Harvin as a draft bust: Harvin was Offensive
Rookie of the Year.

John Clayton of ESPN Predicted:

... a Super Bowl of Steelers over Giants; neither team made the playoffs. He
used an incredibly scientifically advanced formula to predict the Bears,
Bills, Browns, Redskins, Seahawks and Texans would make the playoffs; none did.
Clayton forecast the Saints to finish 8-8; they won the Super Bowl. He said the
Jets would finish 6-10; they reached the AFC Championship Game.

For kicks, there are some horrendously wrong non-football picks included in the column as well. Including this beauty:

In 2002, Joseph Stiglitz, who had just won the Nobel Prize for Economics, and
Peter Orszag, who is now director of the Office of Management and Budget, wrote this paper which concludes "the risk to the government from
a potential default on [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] debt is effectively zero."
Stiglitz and Orszag claimed to have used a computer model to run "millions of
potential future scenarios" and found there could never be any situation in
which taxpayers were harmed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans. So far, the
Fannie-Freddie bailout has cost taxpayers $112 billion, with a potential
ultimate loss to taxpayers of $1.9 trillion.

Aye Carumba! Anyway, check out the whole thing. It is well-worth the read, even if you aren't a football fan.

Brett Favre: Top 5 Ever?

So on the eve of the Super Bowl, it is always interesting to talk about who is the greatest at various positions, with quarterback being the most intriguing. Completely un-library related, but still a good topic to debate-- is Brett Favre one of the five greatest QBs of all time?

Interesting question, one that was debated on the local sports radio program last week. My take on it? In a word, No. He's a great QB, probably top 10 all time, but there are two factors that take him out of the running for top 5. 1) He holds the record for most Interceptions all-time. Partially a factor of his longevity, yes, but more a function of factor 2) The dude is too reckless, too impulsive, too much of a gunslinger to be rated at the same level as Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Johnny Unitas.

The latest meltdown in the NFC Championship Game pretty much illustrates the point-- no, it was not Favre's fault that the Vikings put the ball on the ground as many times as they did, but once they started doing that, once the game was close despite the Vikings superior overall play, he felt the need to make a play. Force a play. And he did. And it probably cost the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl.

A veteran QB, a future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame QB, has to know, simply has no excuse not to know, that the one thing you can't do is turn the ball over. At the end of the game, in field goal range, you simply must not give the ball away or take a sack that takes you out of field goal range. But Favre tried to make a play, to "sling it" into a place that he had busy trying to hit and which was absolutely disastrous for his team.

Do you recall Joe Montana doing that? Ever? Elway, Manning, Unitas, even Brady? Aikman, Bradshaw, Starr? They all make mistakes, and Elway tried to force some balls that he had no business trying to force, but not at the critical moment in the game where an interception absolutely destroys your teams chances.

So, despite all the records, all the great throws and unbelievable plays, Brett Favre is simply not one of the best 5 Quarterbacks ever. He has now cost two teams a chance to go to the Super Bowl by making a really bad decision at a really critical point in the game. A pretty good case can be made that Brett Favre should've appeared in at least four Super Bowls, but only made two because of his own flaws.

For the record, I'd take Joe Montana as the greatest QB in history, but if Peyton Manning wins today, and gets back to the Super Bowl a time or two more, I might have to reconsider that conclusion.

Actual Reality TV

Full Disclaimer: There is nothing Library related in this post. Also, I don't watch a lot of TV and virtually no "reality" TV. Dabbled in the Amazing Race a few years ago, that's about it (except for a very strange diversion with the family one night when we watched "I Survived a Japanese Game Show" and all had a blast with just how crazy the games were). But I digress. To my sensibilities, the only actual reality based TV is... sports.

Now, point shaving NBA referee scandals aside, sports are completely unscripted. Bizarre things happen. Games that everyone expects to be low scoring affairs wind up as offensive shootouts. And vice-versa. Superstars make boneheaded plays. People that nobody except their families have ever heard of make the big play to win the game. You never know what is going to happen next, and even sure bets sometimes aren't-- case in point, even the Detroit Lions are showing signs of being a legitimate NFL team!

A less snarky example is yesterday's painful, but incredibly entertaining, Packers game. This would be the script if it weren't an actual, live sporting event:

Team A commits several boneheaded errors early in the game, allowing Team B to jump out to a big lead. Team B is driving for another score, one that will pretty much put this game away early in the second quarter, then-- BAM! Team A forces a fumble and recovers. Not quite dead, yet. Time for scrappy Team A to counter-punch.

Showing plenty of grit and determination, Team A scores a touchdown and begins to chip away at Team B's lead, a challenge because not only are they already down big, but their defense is having a terrible time slowing down, much less stopping Team B. But they go into half-time down 14 and still hanging in there.

The second half is a crazy shootout. Touchdown Team B-- 21 point lead, game over? Not even close. Touchdown Team A. Onside Kick! Team A recovers! On fourth down, Touchdown Team A! Now it's only a 7 point game. Momentum is on Team A's side, right? Maybe not. Team B scores a touchdown in a minute and a half. Team A responds, goes 80 yards and scores a touchdown in 3 and a half minutes.

Finally, Team A stops Team B from scoring and gets the ball back, early in the fourth quarter, down by a touchdown. Three plays and less than a minute later, touchdown! Game tied! But wait, there's more!

Team B takes the ball and scores again, this time an extended, 11-play, 6 plus minute drive. Less than five minutes left. Team A takes the kick and goes 71 yards, touchdown! But, oh no! They did it too quickly. Team B still has nearly 2 minutes left and only needs a field goal. Bing, bang, boom-- they've driven it down to the 16 yard line with 14 seconds left, leaving only a chip shot field goal for the victory. Boom goes the kick and it's... NOT over! Team B's kicker pulls it wide left! Overtime.

Would anybody buy that? A TV exec would read that script and probably laugh out loud at the absurdity of it all. No way Team A converts an onside kick AND a fourth and 5. No way the teams combine for 56 points in the second half. And ABSOLUTELY no way that Team B's kicker misses from point blank range to keep this craziness going into overtime. Maybe, if the kick were a long one-- 52 yards or some such-- but not a little 34 yard job. It's just too improbable.

BUT... if it all played out that way in a TV or movie script, you just know that Team B is now toast. After struggling all the way back from 17-0 down, nearly 24-0, Team A is now destined to win. They just have to-- it's what the script dictates.

And lo, so it seems it will happen. Team A wins the coin flip, and the play is there. First play in overtime: a deep middle post to Team A's big play receiver, who has two steps on his defender and is gone for the touchdown! Except that the pass was just a little off the mark, incomplete. Two plays later, sack, fumble and touchdown Team B!

Phew. Would anybody write it that way? Would anybody believe it if it wasn't actually happening? It was crazy, and nearly unbelievable. Sports is the best, and really the only reality TV. So-called reality shows have a goodly dollop of reality to them, but they are edited, and even directed in many cases. The people on the shows are selected by the creators of the show and many of the twists and turns that impact the people in the "reality" show are known and planned by the creators of the show. Not so sports. You never know if you'll get an epic upset (NC State over Villanova in 1983 anyone?) or boring old blowout (Florida destroying Cincinnati in this year's Sugar Bowl). Sports rule!

Now, since in the above example Team A was my beloved Packers and Team B was the "I'm okay with them, but not a fan" Arizona Cardinals, this was a deflating loss. But, I am curiously philosophic about the game-- it was the Packers' first post-Brent Farve playoff game. They are very young, learning a new scheme on defense, playing on the road against a team lead by a likely hall-of-fame QB who played one of the best games of his career. And they were THIS close to winning. They could easily have folded up their tents and slunk away into the off-season after two early turnovers and a 17-0 hole. They didn't. Rodgers played great, setting a Packers' post-season record for yards, and we should have a playoff contending team for several years now, hopefully longer if we can improve our offensive and defensive lines (they went from bad to mediocre over the course of this season, but mediocre still isn't good enough).

So, bravo to the 2009 Packers who played better than I expected and showed a lot of heart and talent despite losing yesterday. And I now become a New Orleans Saints fan and also look forward to March Madness. Go Saints, Go Badgers, Go Golden Eagles!

Diva's Still Got Game

Got give credit to Brett Favre. He can still play and the Vikings look very good.

That said, if he still played behind the Packers Offensive (and it is pretty offensive) line, he'd probably be dead now. That unit is awful. I believe Ted Thompson made the right call on moving forward with Aaron Rodgers despite the fact that Brett's skills clearly haven't deteriorated that much.

That said, I think Ted Thompson has done a lousy job of making sure our offensive line is both talented and deep. At this point, it is neither. Similarly, the defensive line. Not as bad as the O-line, but part of the appeal of the 3-4 was supposed to be a more effective pass rush. How's that been working out for us? Anybody seen ANY pass rush, much less an effective one?

Not too early to panic, but there is an old football adage that games are won and lost in the trenches, which is to say, on the offensive and defensive lines. Which is not terribly reassuring. As always, Gregg Easterbrook's take on the NFL is definitely worth a read-- and though he gives credit where credit is due to the diva, his overall take on Favre and the amount of attention he gets (and craves) is spot on, in my opinion.

Return of the Diva

So, there's this football game you might have heard about coming up Monday. Vikings vs. the Pack, with some old dude quarterbacking the Vikings. Not looking forward to the non-stop hype this weekend.

Should be a good game, though, and I really think the Packers will win-- if for no other reason than that the Vikings hired Mr. Noodle from Sesame Street to be their coach. And though I don't want Brett to get hurt, I wouldn't be at all upset if he were to play really, really awfully. A Pick-6 to Woodson or Harris would be a nice finishing touch, really.

For football news that only briefly touches on Brett Favre, check out this week's Tuesday Morning Quarterback. For my money, still the best weekly football essay out there. With a free, and clearly explained, global warming analysis to boot!

Meanwhile, the Brewers continue their long fade back into the depths of mediocrity and the Badgers look to continue their strong start to the season. And the leaves are changing. I guess fall is here!

Are You Ready for some Football?!

Okay, okay, this is pretty much completely un-library related, but I am a passionate sports fan and have been an enthusiastic Packer backer for my entire life. With that comes a life-long disdain for the Chicago Bears. So, Sunday night's hard fought, frequently ugly but ultimately beautifully ending 21-15 victory over the Bears was a fine, fine event.

What was most encouraging was that they managed to pull out a close game-- the Packers lost 7 games last year by 4 or less points-- and the defense looked good. Really good. Granted, the Bears offense isn't going to remind anyone of the brilliant San Francisco 49'ers offense under Bill Walsh, but they should be at least average this year.

Also encouraging is the fact that they won even with Aaron Rodgers and Donald Driver having off nights. Rodgers got rattled a bit early when his right tackle kept wiffing on protecting him from getting smacked by 260 pound Adewale Ogunleye, and Driver dropped a couple of tough passes, but the type he nearly always catches despite their difficulty.

In addition to the football itself, the return of the NFL also signals the return of one of my very mostest, favoritist, bestest sports writers, Gregg Easterbrook, and his always interesting, often funny, and usually very enlightening weekly column, Tuesday Morning Quarterback.

Can the 2009 Packers bring the Lombardi trophy back to Wisconsin? I sure hope so-- and I'm looking forward to watching the attempt, one week at a time.

Insert Fork

The Brewers are done. Cooked, finished, over. Playoff contending teams do not lose to the worst team in baseball two nights in a row. At home. By 5 and 8 run margins. They just don't.

All teams go through rough patches during the ridiculously long Major League Baseball season. In July, the Brewers are 7-16 and have not won a series. That's a big rough patch, but perhaps you could write it off as an anomaly, and hope for a turn-around in August and September. Certainly, in the ridiculously long MLB season, one bad month does not completely ruin your chances.

But. The Washington Nationals are easily the worst team in baseball. Before arriving in Milwaukee on Monday, they had won ten games on the road, while losing 35. Since arriving in Milwaukee they have not just won two road games in a row, they spanked the Brewers-- 14-6 and 8-3.

Since the all-star break, the Brewers are 4-8 against teams with an overall record of 171-228. That's not a rough patch. That's just bad. Bad enough to say, it is time to pack it in for 2009-- let's make some trades to keep our farm system stocked, reload and refurbish our rotation and try again next year.

Turns out, one really good starting pitcher and two all-star position players is not enough to get to the playoffs. It is, however, a very good start. If the Brewers can fill in the holes around Gallardo, Fielder and Braun, the Brewers are legitimate World Series contenders. But the clock is ticking.

There's always next year.

Sigh.

Sports Tidbits

It's a library blog, so I won't spend too much time on this, but I do enjoy sports, playing and watching, so I have to pop in with these observations from time to time.

• The baseball season is WAAYYYY too long. 162 games is absolutely preposterous. 120 would be just fine, allow the season to start later and end earlier, and improve the overall product since less players would break down over the course of the season. It will never happen, of course, because the owners and the league would lose 25% of their revenue, but still.
• Ken Macha is doing a fine job with the Brewers. I agree with nearly all of the moves he's made and his calm, calculated approach to the game is a welcome breather from the tightly wound anxiety of Ned Yost. The one move I don't agree with? Having Carlos Villanueva pitching as a late reliever, occasionally even in the closer role. Villanueva is a pretty good pitcher, with some good value as a long reliever (as a former starter, he can go two or three innings semi-regularly). But he is not a closer. Or even the set up guy to the closer. Case in point, last night, when Manny Parra, recently returned from a stint in the minors, pitched brilliantly and left the game after seven innings with a precarious 1-0 lead. Enter Carlos V., supposed set up man and alternate closer. A single and a triple later, the score is tied and the flood gates are open. Brewers lose 5-1. Ugh.
  
• It is appearing more and more likely that Brett Favre will play as a Minnesota Viking next year. Unbelievable. I cannot remember a sports icon so firmly and consistently determined to trash EVERYTHING about his legacy. Two years ago, Brett Favre was a demi-god in Wisconsin and everywhere Packer nation has taken root. He was, arguably, the most popular Wisconsin sportsfigure ever-- though fans of Lombardi, Starr, and Yount might disagree. But now? The hissy fits, the Diva stomp offs, the high school histrionics and communication via cell phone. The lies, the exaggerations, the stated desire to get back at Ted Thompson no matter the cost, fans be damned. It is breathtaking. In a year-and-a-half, Favre has managed to go from beloved icon to a disliked, even hated, representative of all that is wrong in sports. And now he will likely not only play against the Packers but with one of their two biggest rivals. He will be booed at Lambeau field. Loudly and lustily I suspect. And he'll have earned all of the ill will, derision and scorn that will be heaped upon his back by people who used to adore him. Unbelievable and unbelievably sad. He could have retired as the most popular guy in the state and one of the classiest, most down to earth guys ever to have played the game. Instead, his legacy as a great QB will always be tainted by his classlessness, his disregard for the fans, his narcissism and his small-minded vindictiveness.
• As a contrast to Favre and his "me, me, look at me, aren't I great, me!" attitude, I watched the Wimbledon Final last weekend. Good heavens what a match. I cannont imagine how crushing it must have been for Andy Roddick to have played that well, for that long against the best tennis player ever... and to lose. To have his serve broken once--once!-- in five sets... and to lose. And yet afterwards he showed tremendous class and sportsmanship. He acknowledged the fans and he lauded Federer. To borrow a British expression-- it was Brilliant!

Go Brewers! Go Packers!

March Madness: Baskets

So, the official, real, basketball-based March Madness brackets are out. As has been noted in other places, Arizona, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan really don't belong. I'm glad Wisconsin is in, don't get me wrong, but at 19-13 and without a "resume" win, they aren't a tournament team. You can't choke (only word that fits, I think) all the late game leads (seven, I think? Maybe eight) that this Badger team choked away and be a tourney team. Well, apparently you can... but you shouldn't be able to.

This is always the case, but it is a shame that a middling-to-bad Big Ten conference got seven bids, while teams like Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State and UAB were left out.

The other Wisconsin school, got a 6-seed, which seems about right. Before Dominique James' injury, they were probably a 3 or 4, but with his injury they just aren't the same team. I thought they had a shot at going pretty deep in the tourney, but without James, I'll be surprised if they make it to the Sweet 16.

But enough about basketball. How about some March Madness for books?!

When Life is Better than a Story

This story has nothing to do with libraries, books, information or technology. It has a lot to do with what is best about people, about sportsmanship and about the human spirit. As an added bonus, it happened in Wisconsin and its getting national attention (I saw it on Yahoo).

I pass it along because it is worth reading and as my own small props to everyone involved, because what they did was good and right and (sadly) refreshing in a world that far too often seems more interested in fame, greed and winning at all costs.

Oh the Weather Outside is Frightful

Seriously, this has been one of the worst Decembers I can remember in terms of the weather. Snow, cold, wind, repeat. For variety sake, the order gets mixed around a bit, wind, cold, snow, repeat. Ai Carumba, it's like a broken and annoying record.

Fortunately, it is warm inside at the Library and we will be open today, Friday and Saturday. Stop in and stock up on snow books... or perhaps, books about the Bahamas.

Speaking of broken records, does this sound familiar?: Outplay the opponent most of the game but allow them to hang around, give up a big play and lose the narrow lead late, then stage a furious comeback that either falls short or which is subsequently given away when the special teams and/or defense completely fails to do anything useful. Ye gods the Packers are frustrating and annoying to watch this year.

Fortunately, the Bucks actually look to be decent to good this year. Not anywhere close to the level of the Celtics or Cavaliers, but certainly a playoff team, and possibly a 2nd round playoff team if they can get up to the 5 seed.

Okay, I'm off to shovel. No, seriously-- a good inch has fallen since I came in this morning.